Uruguay’s Chances

Nolan sent me a comment in which he asked me about Uruguay’s chances to be in South Africa. Their historic win against Colombia looked to have put them in prime position. Their draw against Ecuador was two steps back. No one in Uruguay thought that they were going to get four, nonetheless three.

Currently Uruguay could be in better shape but knowing what they have gone through, they are in great shape. I gave Nolan five reasons as to why Uruguay had a great shot at playing South Africa two years from now.

1) They are only five points away. I will fight this until the end. CONMEBOL qualifiers are the toughest in the world. Barnone. There are no Faroe Islands. There are no San Marinos in this neck of the woods, that is the issue, and we will talk about this at another time. Uruguay are five points from the top and they have a chance to make some more noise. In about a month, the marquee matchup will be played in Buenos Aires or maybe La Plata depending if Alfio Basile gets his way or not. They will head to the opposite side of the River Plate and play their eternal rivals. With only five points separating them from the top puts them in a situation where they can be even higher in the standings.

2) No one is really dominating. Paraguay is not dominating, yet they are the most consistent. They have been able earn all of their points at home, but there have been some stumbles along the way, they did lose to Bolivia in La Paz. Argentina is slumping. They have only earned four out of the last 15 points at their disposal. The Albiceleste are in a position where they are dangling on a tight rope. The team is in disarray and there are cracks that are starting to emerge in that armor that seemed impenetrable after the Olympic gold.
Brazil are just in a novella that seems to get more complicated in its libretto day after day. Dunga is on the way. Maybe not. Oh there is no doubt. Well, they are coming out of it. She loves me. She loves me not. Whoa. Whoa, just a sec! Let’s really look at things here coldly. Brazil is best under adversity. They are at their best when they are not the favorites. Or have you all forgotten about the crucible that was the 2002 qualifiers. We can then remember what they did in World Cup that year. One thing is for sure, Brazil are obligated to be in the World Cup. In Brazil, it is not an argument, it is a divine right given by the soccer gods to them. The same “divine right” Uruguay claimed back in 2005 as they were about to face Australia.
Colombia and Venezuela started out of the gate quick and have fizzled (to put it nicely).
Actually they both seemed to have held hands and jumped head-first into oblivion. Colombia are have seen blank in their scoresheets for the past 369 minutes. They are averaging 0.5 per game and are allowing 0.75 in the process. Venezuela in the meantime have lost three matches in a row and have only earned a point so far this year. For many, this was the year for Venezuela as they grew and were no longer the doormats of the region. The problem with them is that losing was ingrained in their collective subconcious and that will take even more to get rid of. Things for Venezuela are critical as they will be hosting a road warrior Brazil and a hot Ecuador as well. Anything less than three points for the Vinotinto could virutally wrap up their any contentions for South Africa.

3) Halfway there. If you were to look at the number of points that they had in 2006 is much less than they currently have. Uruguay tends to be a second-half team ever since this format began in 2000. For the teams that are vying for that fourth and fifth place the magic number will be 26. At the rate things are going, you have to do some extensive mathematics. Five wins out of the next ten will assure them of fourth place. That would be easier said than done as Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Colombia, and Peru will be at the Centenario. This this could be where they qualify.

4) Beating each other up. The teams that are ahead of them will be beating each other up in the coming weeks. Any points they can accumulate will put them in an even more favorable position. In matchday 9, Ecuador will host Chile and Colombia will do the same with Paraguay. Matchday 10 will see Paraguay will host Peru and Brazil will host Colombia and an inspired Chile side will host Argentina.

5) Firepower. Uruguay have the offensive power to be able to be competitive in every single match they play throughout the entire qualifier. Their 15 goals in eight matches makes them a threat in any stadium, at any time. Just ask Colombia. Those 15 goals were not just from one person. Their scoring was spread out between six players that could come from the bench or from any part of the world.

6) Defense. The Charruan garra (strength) is characteristic in all Uruguayan players. That is the will and strength that made Alcides Ghigghia an idol in Uruguay. He is the poster child for this mentality. Their power, strength, and ability are what made them champs. During the Francescoli, Bengoechea, Sosa, and company era they were able to acquire finesse, but somehow lost that grit that made them seem like a “poor man’s Argentina” for the past generation. Now they have the group of players that can finally emerge from that shadow the same way their forefathers did back at the Maracaná.

Ultimately, destiny is in their hands. They look right now as if they will be in fourth place by the time the World Cup draw occurs in December of next year. So I guess all the people that read this will like me for a little while longer then.